The As-Is Model: Understanding Your Current Trajectory in Marketing Strategy

In the world of performance marketing, it's easy to focus on what’s next—new campaigns, new platforms, new optimizations. But before any meaningful strategic planning can occur, it's essential to answer a fundamental question: Where are we headed if we keep doing what we’re doing? This is where the As-Is Model comes into play.

At our agency, we’ve built our reputation over the past decade as experts in Google and Meta Ads, producing significant results through platform-specific optimizations—bid management, audience segmentation, creative testing, feed enhancements, and keyword strategies. Frankly, we didn’t need to think beyond the platforms. Execution was strategy, and in-platform changes were enough to move the needle.

Today, that reality has changed. The platforms are automated. The competition is stiffer. The easy wins are gone. Now, success requires a strategic shift, and the As-Is Model is how we begin that process.

What Is the As-Is Model?

The As-Is Model is a strategic framework used to project future performance based on your current trajectory. It answers the critical question: If we continue operating with minimal changes—plus or minus routine optimizations—where will we likely end up? And will that be even remotely close to the goals we set forth? 

This model forces businesses to confront their baseline performance, stripping away assumptions about future success and focusing on what current strategies are realistically capable of delivering. If you’re not happy with the path or destination the business is heading towards, something meaningful needs to happen and change. 

It is not about potential. It’s about actual, trackable progress and limitations. It’s the starting point from which all strategic decisions must be measured.

Why the As-Is Model Matters

For years, we could drive growth for our clients simply by tweaking Google Ads campaigns, optimizing Meta audiences, and refining ad creatives. But now, with platform automation and limited manual control, we recognize that real growth isn’t driven solely by in-platform adjustments—it requires understanding market dynamics, competitive pressures, and strategic gaps.

The As-Is Model is crucial because it:

Provides clarity: Helps clients understand where their business is truly heading—not where they hope it will go.

Informs resource allocation: Determines if current efforts are enough or if bold strategic shifts are necessary.

Bridges the gap: Quantifies the distance between where you are headed and where you want to be.

Reveals limitations of routine optimizations or lack of ambition of goals: Illustrates how doing more of the same—even with incremental improvements—may fall short of business goals, or reveals that goals need to be adjusted. There's also a scenario where the goals aren't ambitious enough and will only require riding the wave. In those situations, without more ambitious goals, you risk underperforming compared with your potential. 

Steps to Build the As-Is Model

Creating an effective As-Is projection involves several key steps:

1. Define Clear Business Goals

Start by articulating the specific outcomes the business wants to achieve. These are not marketing goals (e.g., lower CPA), but business objectives such as revenue targets, market expansion, or customer acquisition.

Example: The client’s goal is $40 million in revenue over the next 6 months at a 220% ROI.

Break this down into quarterly and monthly targets. Clearly distinguish negotiable vs. non-negotiable targets—what must be achieved versus what is ideal.

2. Analyze Current Performance Data

Assess historical and recent performance to determine current run rate. This includes metrics such as:

• Revenue trends
• Conversion rates
• Cost per sale (CPS)
• Average order value (AOV)

Use this data to project where the business is trending, assuming current conditions hold. This becomes your As-Is projection.

3. Factor in Seasonality

Performance is rarely linear. Consider seasonality and historical sales fluctuations. For instance, Q4 often drives outsized results for eCommerce, while SaaS may experience Q1 growth due to budget cycles.

Example: Brand X is trending towards $50 million in revenue over the next 6 months at a 251% ROI, driven by strong seasonal demand. (Insert screenshot: Seasonality projection template)

Ignoring seasonality leads to inaccurate As-Is models and misaligned expectations.

4. Incorporate Market Dynamics

Beyond internal metrics, assess external forces influencing performance. These include:

• New competitors entering the market
• Shifts in consumer behavior
• Macroeconomic conditions affecting demand or costs

Example: Brand X is trending toward $34 million at 210% ROI, but a new competitor’s entry has increased Cost Per Sale, reducing projected ROI below goal thresholds. (Insert screenshot: Market condition analysis)

5. Determine the Delta Between As-Is and Goal

Once you have your As-Is projection, compare it directly to your stated goal. This delta helps determine:

• Is the goal achievable with current strategies?
• Does hitting the goal require demand capture, demand generation, or both?
• Is the strategy too conservative or overly ambitious?

This analysis is critical in deciding whether to stay the course with minor adjustments or pivot to a more aggressive strategy.

Applying the As-Is Model in Practice: Client Examples

At our agency, we use the As-Is Model as a foundational step in every strategic planning engagement. Here are examples of how this has transformed client planning:

Postpartum Luxury Center

Instead of simply launching ads based on CPC estimates, we evaluated market size, cultural dynamics of postpartum care, and indirect competitors like doulas to build an informed As-Is model. This allowed us to set realistic expectations and identify gaps where strategic shifts were needed to reach revenue goals. (Insert screenshot: As-Is analysis for postpartum care market)

Off-Road Accessories Company

While routine ad optimizations had already been executed, growth was plateauing. The As-Is projection, when combined with data on branded vehicle sales, proximity to national parks, and gasoline price trends, revealed underlying market limits. This prompted a reassessment of product focus and regional targeting strategies. (Insert screenshot: As-Is model with market inputs for off-road market)

Indigenous Food Marketplace

For a client with ready-made meals, we modeled out market share projections and conducted a SWOT analysis to understand competitive threats. The As-Is model demonstrated that even with current performance sustained, revenue goals would not be met without entering new acquisition channels and expanding retention strategies. (Insert screenshot: Market share model and As-Is projection)

Conclusion: Strategy Begins with Understanding the As-Is

For years, our agency delivered results by focusing on in-platform optimizations—and for a long time, that was enough. But the landscape has shifted. We’ve evolved from a PPC executional agency into a strategic partner precisely because these changes demanded it.

The As-Is Model is now a critical part of how we assess client trajectories, inform decision-making, and define what success looks like. It’s not just about what you’re doing—it’s about understanding where your current efforts are likely to take you.

By identifying where you’re likely to land if nothing major changes, we help clients make the informed, strategic decisions needed to bridge the gap between today’s reality and tomorrow’s goals.

If your current trajectory doesn’t align with your goals, the As-Is Model will make that clear—and we’ll help you build a strategy that does more than optimize ads. It will optimize your growth.

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